Tag Archives: Leicester

Following on from my piece the other day about League domination where I challenged a few myths that have developed about Premier League domination. It continues to be said that the Premier League is not as competitive as in the past and that teams at the bottom have no chance. This is of course concerning and there are definitely issues between the haves and have nots in football but is this a recent phenomenon? Is this caused by one club in particular?

Each season there are often one or two clubs who have an extremely low points total and, to be frank, I’m not certain whether the champions (whoever they are and whenever they succeed) can be blamed for the results of games not involving them.

Surely, even if City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, United etc. win the League every season by a record amount of points the results between all other 19 clubs have zero to do with that club’s dominance?  If you’re a supporter of a relegated club can you honestly say that you’d stand a chance of winning the League if City or another team did not exist?  You’d need possibly the top ten to disappear before it had a major impact on your chance of League success (I’m not saying that’s acceptable – I’m just stating that it can never be the fault of one club).

Those finishing second may blame the dominant club but surely not anyone outside of those challenging. Blame all the elite maybe. These things never happen over night and because one club wins the League.

So, how do we calculate the gap between the champions and those struggling?  Where do we start?

One method is to look at the team that wins the League and see how big a gap is between them and the relegated clubs. There are often one or two teams that gather few points and so I’ve looked at the difference between the champions and the team finishing 17^th (safe from relegation). I’ve taken the lowest points accumulated by the 17^th placed team and compared that to the Champions.

This makes interesting reading and shows that the lowest points gathered by the 17^th placed ‘safe’ team was almost two decades ago! That’s right, it’s not the current era – it’s all those years ago!

Chelsea were the champions when the lowest points total was accrued by the 17^th placed club in 2004-05 (in fact the three lowest were all in the 2000s not the last decade). The five lowest points accumulated by a team in 17^th place are (note: 5 of these are 2010 or earlier):

1: 2004-05 Champions Chelsea earned 61 points more than 17^th placed WBA (34)

2: 2009-10 Chelsea earned 51 points more than 17^th placed West Ham (35)

2: 2008-09 United earned 55 points more than 17^thplaced Hull (35)

2: 2019-20 Liverpool earned 64 points more than 17^th placed Aston Villa (35)

5^th: 1999-00 United earned 55 points more than 17^th placed Bradford (36)

5^th: 2007-08 United earned 51 points more than 17^th placed Fulham (36)

5^th: 2013-14 City earned 50 points more than 17^th placed WBA (36)

5^th: 2017-18 City earned 64 points more than 17^th placed Southampton (36)

5^th: 2018-19 City earned 62 points more than 17^th placed Brighton (36)

5^th: 2022-23 City earned 53 points more than 17^th placed Everton (36)

Ignoring the first few seasons when there were more than 20 clubs in the Premier League, the highest points total ever gathered by the club in 17^th place was 44 (Bolton) in 2002-03 – only two seasons before the lowest points total, showing how these things can vary.

Okay but what about teams actually relegated? Here are the five lowest points accumulated by a team finishing 20^th and the difference with the champions that season. Again the lowest points gathered was in the 2000s, not 2020s (Only 2 of these are since 2015 and none are from the 2020s!):

1: 2007-08 Champions United gathered 76 points more than 20^th Derby (11 points)

2: 2005-06 Chelsea gathered 76 more than Sunderland (15)

3: 2018-19 City gathered 82 more than Huddersfield (16)

4: 2015-16 Leicester gathered 64 more than Aston Villa (17)

5: 2002-03 United gathered 64 more than Sunderland (19)

5: 2009-10 Liverpool gathered 78 more than Portsmouth (19)

Okay, so what about the actual points gap between the champions and the 20^th placed club? Again analysis of every Premier League season shows some interesting information.  The five biggest points differences between top and bottom are (again two of these are from the 2000s):

1^st: 2018-19 City 82 points over Huddersfield

2^nd: 2019-20 Liverpool 78 points over Norwich

3^rd: 2005-06 Chelsea 76 points over Sunderland

3^rd: 2007-08 United 76 points over Derby

5^th: 2021-22 City 71 points over Norwich

For the next analysis I’ve calculated the difference between the champions and the club finishing in 18^th place (usually a relegated place, but not in the first couple of years of the Premier League). The idea being that the bottom two could be way off the pace.

This shows that City’s record 100 points season was the biggest gap between them and the 18^th place relegated club. That’s significant, however that was an incredible record breaking season of wins for City. Interestingly though, for a team that’s supposed to be creating barriers between the top and the bottom City only hold two of the top five biggest gaps (Chelsea also hold 2) and one of those top 5 champions is actually Chelsea in 2004-05 – 19 years ago!

If we look beyond the top five there are 3 clubs in joint 6^th place including Manchester United in 1998-99 – 25 years ago! Yet it’s supposed to be only now that the gap between top and relegation is vast.

For those wondering here are the highest 10 or so gaps between top and relegated clubs (18^th place):

1^st: 2017-18 City (the record 100 points season) 67 points over Swansea

2^nd: 2019-20 Liverpool 65 points over Bournemouth

3^rd: 2018-19 City 64 points over Cardiff

4^th: 2004-05 Chelsea 62 points over Crystal Palace

5^th: 2016-17 Chelsea 59 points over Hull

6^th: 1999-00 United 58 points over Wimbledon

6^th: 2020-21 City 58 points over Fulham

6^th: 2021-22 City 58 points over Burnley

9^th: 2003-04 Arsenal 57 points over Leicester

9^th: 2005-06 Chelsea 57 points over Birmingham

11^th: 2008-09 United 56 points over Newcastle

11^th: 2009-10 Chelsea 56 points over Burnley

What does all this statistical information prove? Well there doesn’t appear to be much difference between the 2000s and the last decade. Some seasons in each decade there were huge gaps.

We all know that the elite are some way ahead of those that struggle and there is an imbalance. That’s concerning for football and the introduction of Financial Fair Play and similar has, so far, strengthened the position of the elite and limited the opportunity for investment at lower clubs. 

You can read my previous post here:

League Dominance?

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